7. Summary of most important likely impacts for tourism
Svalbard is experiencing rapid changes in environment and climate at a rate that far surpasses mainland Norway, which in turn presents both opportunities and challenges for the tourism industry. One of the major impacts experienced so far is the disappearance of land fast ice in the fjords of Western Svalbard in the late winter and spring months. This has opened a new season for cruise- and expedition cruise tourism in late winter and spring and has also extended the summer season. However, the extended season increases risk of accidents, for example, ship damage due to sea ice collision and stormy weather when approaching the winter (and darkness).
The increased ship and boat traffic also increases the risk of hitting seabirds and marine mammals while driving (especially at speed >25 knots). Underwater noise from ships and boat traffic is also thought to disturb marine wildlife. Increased risk of pollution from marine traffic, such as oil spills, is also a growing concern. Fishing boats are by far the largest contributors to plastic pollution (fishing gears etc.).
Climate change is also heightening the risk of natural hazards, which will likely have significant consequences for all human activity on Svalbard. Climate change is projected to accelerate permafrost thaw, exacerbate risk of avalanches and landslides, increased precipitation will lead to increased flood risk. Increased avalanche risk, for example, is likely to cause more frequent closure of major inland snowmobile routes, such as the one between Barentsburg and Longyearbyen (see figure 11). More frequent rain episodes in winter also pose a challenge for land-based tourism activities (ski tours, dog mushing or snowmobiles), for example, by causing flooding of transportation routes in valleys. The season for guided snowmobile trips has already been cut short because of the shortening snow season and due to loss of sea ice. This has forced tour groups to more frequently travel into higher altitudes and onto glaciers, which involves increased safety risks due to longer travel routes, crevasse danger and more challenging weather conditions (“whiteouts” etc.).
7.1 Climate change implications for further tourism development around Longyerbyen
Recent strategies for tourism development on Svalbard state that further development of tourism should be concentrated in Longyerbyen and Longyerdalen and Adventdalen valleys (Hovelsrud et al. 2023). This means that climate change impacts in this area is of particular significance. Further tourism infrastructure development, such as trails, shelters etc. also need to be concentrated within the planning area of Longyerbyen local council. Such development thus need to take into account:
- Increased risk of flash floods and slush avalanches
- Increased land slide risk
- Increased avalanche risk
The Norwegian agency responsible for avalanche and flood protection, NVE has both installed flood and avalanche prevention measures in the Longyerdalen valley that mitigate these risks, but with the rate of change in temperatures and precipitation that is projected it is likely significant uncertainties wether the prevention measures is sufficient.
Adventsdalen valley is the main gateway from Longyearbyen to the wider Isfjorden Area as well as Northern Spitzbergen. Warmer and wetter winters and spring seasons might complicate snowmobiling, dogsledding and skiing through this valley, due to open streams and inundation of the trails.
Increased presence of polar bears around Isfjorden might be temporary, but it might also signal a more lasting trend. In any case it places a larger responsibility for tourism operators when planning and executing tourism activities in the Isfjorden area, which also includes the areas around Longyearbyen.
7.2 Climate change increases ecosystem vulnerability to human activities
Economic opportunities for the tourism industry are increasingly constrained by the need to take climate change impacts and environmental requirements into account. In fact, from a climate change perspective, the tourism industry faces a greater diversity of risk than other economic sectors (Scott, Hall, & Gössling, 2019). Hovelsrud et al. (2021) conclude by specifying that ecosystem services such as sea ice, permafrost, flora, and fauna are directly or indirectly affected by climate change (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2019; Hovelsrud, Poppel, Oort, & Reist, 2011), thereby affecting the infrastructure and products at the heart of Svalbard tourism. The new regulations for environmental protection and tourism management is partly motivated by the increased climate change induced vulnerability of ecosystems to human activities. In the short term, this regulations, which will have sweeping impacts on tourism, might turn out to be the most significant indirect impact of climate change.
To sum up – until now, impacts of climate change have been a greater benefit than challenge to tourism in Svalbard, in the way it has allowed for a new tourism season with ship and boat traffic in the spring. However, the rapid and cascading changes projected in the coming decades is likely to be disruptive, particularly in terms of increased risk of natural hazards.