Impacts of climate and environmental change on tourism in Svalbard

Svalbard is facing significant changes related to permafrost thaw. Monitoring of permafrost thermal states provides clear evidence of warming permafrost in Svalbard, and near-surface permafrost in coastal and low altitude areas is projected to thaw before the end of the century (Hansen-Bauer et al. 2019, Isaksen et al. 2022).

Warming and thawing permafrost increases risk of natural hazards. A thicker active permafrost layer in combination with increased precipitation will result in unstable slopes, increasing the risk for landslides and avalanches (Christiansen et al. 2019a, Haeberli et al. 2010, Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019, Meyer 2022). Deteriorating permafrost conditions will also affect coastal erosion processes, especially where the coastline consists only of sediments (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019:11).

Permafrost degradation also poses an increased risk of infrastructure damage (Isaksen et al. 2022). For example, buildings and structures may experience strength deterioration and deformation, and possible foundation failure due to increases in permafrost temperature and degradation (Instanes 2003).

Projected climatic changes with increasing temperature and precipitation (as both snow and rain), coupled with increasing permafrost temperatures, will likely increase the frequency of all types of avalanches and landslides in Svalbard in the coming decades (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019). Towards the end of the century, gradually increasing temperatures may lead to a substantially shorter snow season and reduction in the maximum annual snow amounts in coastal low altitude areas, and the snow line will gradually shift to higher altitudes. Over time, these factors are expected to decrease the probability of dry snow avalanches. However, the probability of wet snow avalanches and slush flows is expected to increase (like the wet snow avalanches and slush flows in 2012). While glide avalanches are not common in Svalbard in the present-day climate, they may become a problem at some locations in a future warmer and wetter climate (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019:124).

On Svalbard, increased avalanche activity threatens infrastructure and utilities, such as buildings, roads, bridges, pipes, and masts (Hestnes et al. 2016). Increased avalanche activity also poses a risk to human life and residential areas. Longyearbyen experienced two major avalanche events in December 2015 and February 2017. In 2015, two people lost their lives when a large slab avalanche from the ridge of Sukkertoppen destroyed ten houses in Longyearbyen. The 2017 avalanche damaged several buildings, but there were no fatalities (Hestnes et al. 2016, Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019, Meyer 2022).

Increased human activity on Svalbard, particularly in the Longyearbyen area, affects people’s exposure to natural hazards such as avalanches. Population and tourism have grown considerably since the 1960s and, consequently, the number of people involved in backcountry activities has strongly increased. Human triggered slab avalanches seem to cause most fatalities among recreational backcountry skiers and snowmobilers (Figure 7), while naturally triggered avalanches are the main threat to infrastructure, transport routes and residential areas (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019:122).

While flood estimates for Svalbard are highly uncertain, changes in the frequency and magnitude of floods are strongly linked to changes in precipitation, snow storage and glacier regimes. On Svalbard, increased precipitation will thus likely lead to increased rain-floods and increased combined snowmelt-, glacier melt- and rain floods. In turn, increases in rain, glacier melt, and river flows will increase erosion and sediment transport (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019).

In regions where the annual maximum snow storage is expected to decrease, snowmelt floods will become smaller. Increased precipitation and a larger fraction as rain will increase the magnitude and frequency of rain floods and combined snowmelt, glacier melt and rain floods. For the high emission scenario towards the end of the century, the glacier area and volume in several catchments will be reduced to the extent that the contribution from glacier meltwater to floods will be negligible (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019:10).

Increased air temperature and permafrost thawing, combined with increasing frequency of strong precipitation events will lead to more active slope processes and significantly greater instability in mountain slopes, leading to an overall rise in landslide activity in Svalbard (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019:125). While there are currently no studies published on the effect of permafrost on rockslides in Svalbard itself, studies from Northern Norway show that increasing temperatures leading to degradation of permafrost may play an important role in the detachment of larger rockslides. (Blikra et al. 2015; Frauenfelder et al., 2018, Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2019:124). Degradation of permafrost is thus likely to play an important role in the detachment of larger rockslides on Svalbard as well.

Svalbard is experiencing the impacts of climate change at a rate that far surpasses mainland Norway and the concomitant risk of natural hazards will likely have significant consequences for human activity in the archipelago. While more research on the relevance of natural hazards and climate change for tourism is needed, several recent studies shed light on some of the societal impacts of climate change on Svalbard and in Longyearbyen (see Kaltenborn et al 2020, Hovelsrud et al. 2021, Jaskólski et al. 2018, Meyer 2022, Tvinnereim, Angell, Kolstad, Brekke & Mortensen 2016, Timlin et al. 2022). These studies find that environmental changes due to climate change will have implications for industrial activities, logistics in the greater Svalbard area, tourism operations, and the town of Longyearbyen.

The future development of natural hazards is particular salient for Longyebyen area, which is exposed to all categories of natural hazards mentioned above. Norwegian Svalbard policy state that future tourism growth and development should be concentrated in the Longearbyen area (Hovelsrud et al. 2023). Natural hazards is a thus a major shaping factor in how tourism development in Longyerbyen can take place. Already, hotels in the upper part of the town needs to be evacuated when avalanche risk is high.

Some authors conclude that large parts of Longyearbyen will need to be either upgraded or relocated due to the increased risk of natural hazards such as landslides and avalanches, thawing permafrost and flooding (Meyer 2022). Hovelsrud et al. (2020) moreover discuss how heightened avalanche risk affects people’s psychosocial health and quality of life. Increased risk of flooding, avalanches and landslides will also limit the area available for new construction and continued development on Svalbard. Additionally, erosion may put coastal cultural heritage at increased risk and may also expose old graves and burial sites (Hovelsrud et al. 2020, Nicu et al. 2021). All these can have further impacts on residents' lives and scope for tourism development in the Longyearbyen valley (Hovelsrud et al. 2020, Jaskólski et al. 2018, Timlin et al. 2022).