Impacts of climate and environmental change on tourism in Svalbard

Despite large ongoing changes in climatic conditions (Bilt et al. 2019), the latest report assessing the ecological condition of Norwegian Arctic tundra ecosystems conclude that sub-ecosystems in the Norwegian Arctic tundra are still resilient to ongoing changes. The assessment is based on evaluation of seven ecosystem characteristics (Pedersen et al. 2021). Overall, the Arctic ecosystem shows minor changes compared to the reference condition (Pedersen et al. 2021). However, observed changes are substantial for certain characteristics and within certain geographical regions, sub-ecosystems and for single species.

For High Arctic tundra in Svalbard, two ecosystem characteristics (non-biological factors and landscape-ecological patterns) show substantial deviation from the reference condition (Pedersen et al., 2021). Non-biologic factors, such as July mean temperature, which has increased with 0.3–1.1 C per decade since 1990, permafrost temperatures have increased by close to 1.0°C/decade since the monitoring was initiated, and the duration of snow cover has decreased with three weeks. Reduced snow cover has, for instance, been shown to alter functionality of Arctic tundra (Niittynen et al. 2020). These changes are likely to continue, and, in a few decades, it is expected that eco-systems included in this assessment will be far outside the climate envelopes of their reference (Pedersen et al. 2021).

The observed changes in landscape-ecological patterns in Svalbard are tightly linked to climatic changes. The changes are regarded to be substantial due to an extensive loss of areas that climatically belong to the coldest bioclimatic subzone A (Arctic polar desert zone) (Pedersen et al. 2021). Polar deserts are also one of the nature types that are listed as near threatened in the Norwegian red-list of nature types (Arnesen et al. 2018). Hot springs, Arctic steppe and calcareous formations of permafrost bog edges are nature types considered critically endangered in Svalbard, mainly due to the combination of currently restricted range extension and vulnerability to changing climate conditions.

The ecosystem characteristics «Biodiversity» and “Functional groups within trophic levels» are reported to show no deviation from the reference condition in Svalbard (Pedersen et al., 2021). However, both are listed with an “inadequate” indicator coverage», meaning that the set of indicators used have several shortcomings (Pedersen et al. 2021). Thus, changes might be present but not detected. Some species and species groups have changed distribution and abundance dramatically the last decades. Geese have, for instance, shown a strong positive response to climate changes (Tombre et al. 2019, Smith et al. 2020), whereas numbers of waders have declined (Smith et al., 2020). The grazing impact of geese are currently believed to have limited ecosystem significance; however, this may change soon and should be monitored closely (Pedersen et al. 2021). Whether the positive climate-change response in geese will continue is also questioned (Layton-Matthews et al., 2020).

A resent status report on freshwater systems in Svalbard revealed lack of sufficient reference data (Brittain et al, 2020). However, based on available information, the largest foreseen changes are related to climate change, where increased water temperatures and changes in ice-cover are postulated to have large impact on freshwater ecosystems. Increased nutrient-input through increased number of geese might also be substantial.

Thus, observed changes are overall strongly associated with phenomena driven by climate change. Climate change is clearly the most influential anthropogenic driver compared to other drivers, such as technical infrastructure, harvesting, or natural resource management (Pedersen et al. 2021).

Hot springs are directly affected by tourism and other recreation activities, and direct damage due to human visits are reported (Arnesen et al. 2018). Since 2020, the hot springs that are least accessible (Trollkjeldene, Bockfjorden) are prohibited to visit, whereas it is still possible to visit Jotunkjeldene. The Arctic steppe areas are in the inner parts of Wijdefjorden and are rarely visited due to their remote location. Calcareous formations of permafrost bog edges are found in some very restricted areas in Sassendalen, Gipsdalen, Kapp Thordsen, Ossian Sars, and in a few locations in Wijdefjorden. None of the locations are regarded threatened by direct human disturbance or activities, but the spots in Ossian Sars are at risk due to increased reindeer grazing (Arnesen et al. 2018).

Other types of changes due to human activities are registered, such as erosion due to trampling at common landing sites (Hagen et al 2012), as well as the risk of introducing alien species. However, these drivers are minor in comparison - or their impacts are mainly noticed through the amplification driven by climate change. Today, alien plant species are only found in settlements, and have not spread to high-risk natural habitats like bird-cliffs. However, the risk of alien species becoming invasive is expected to increase along with warmer climate (Bartlett et al. 2021).

Estuarine, coastal and fjordic waters are among the most productive regions in the high Arctic, but also among the most rapidly changing ecosystems in the world. Melting of permafrost, reduction of land fast sea ice and retreat of glaciers impact the nearshore ecosystems in Svalbard and elsewhere in the Arctic (McGovern et al. 2019, 2020). The melting glaciers, increased precipitation and river run-off add massive amounts of sediments to the coastal waters resulting in increased turbidity (suspended particulate matter, SPM), thereby decreasing light penetration and potentially the primary productivity counteracting the effects of reduced sea ice cover (Singh et al. 2022). Further, glaciers, snow caps, and permafrost contain stores of contaminants that have been atmospherically transported from lower latitudes (AMAP 2017, 2021). Thus, runoff from these systems potentially represent a secondary source of legacy contaminants. Global warming and increased human activity impact Arctic coastal biodiversity and ecosystem processes, which, in turn, will impact food security and daily life in these coastal communities.

Currently 77% of the coastline in Svalbard is categorized into coastscapes (Figure 2). The roughly 23% unmapped coastline is primarily located in Nordaustlandet, but also includes some newly exposed coastline that is the result of glacial retreat since the aerial pictures were taken in the late 1980s.

The dominant coastscapes are: 1) rocky shore and sea cliffs (31%), followed by 2) low gradient soft shores, intermixed with 3) estuaries and lagoons, and 4) barrier islands (29%). Svalbard is covered by glaciers (57%) and approximately 12% of the coastline comprises of 5) ice fronts. Steep soft shoreline, often containing ice, is termed 6) rapidly eroding shore. In Svalbard this costscape is poorly represented (5%). New calculations show that 303 km (7.2 %) of new coastline has appeared on Spitsbergen after glaciers have retreated onto land (Urbanski et al. in prep). In total, for the entire Svalbard archipelago, 350 km new coastline was found, with only minor changes for the other islands (<3.7%), except for Storøya with 12% more coastline (1.8 km) (Urbanski et al. in prep.).

Svalbard stretches over a steep climate gradient (see chapter 3 below) and, so far, most studies have taken place in western Svalbard for which biological time series of 20 years and more exist. In the cold region of Svalbard, no regular biological monitoring takes place, except for annual to biannual sampling of plankton and benthos in Rijpfjorden. In the coming years and decades, it is proposed that especially the northeastern Svalbard will experience the largest changes due to the predicted disappearance of sea ice. In western Svalbard, big changes have already taken place (after 2005), changes, that when combined, can be understood as a regime shift.

In Svalbard, the fjord ecosystem is the coastscape that has been best studied. Regular studies on hydrography, phytoplankton and zooplankton have existed since 1996 in Kongsfjorden (NPI and IOPAS), since 2000 in Hornsund (IOPAS), since 2007 in Rijpfjorden (UNIS and NPI), since 2011 in Isfjorden (UNIS) and in Van Mijenfjorden since 2014.

The last two decades, boreal species have become more prominent in Svalbard waters and this “Atlantification” of the Svalbard marine ecosystem is particularly prevalent along West Spitsbergen (e.g., Berge et al. 2015, Gluchowska et al. 2016, Hop et al. 2019a, Vithakari et al. 2018) due to regular intrusions of warm Atlantic water since 2005 (Muckenhuber et al. 2016, Cottier et al. 2019, Tverberg et al. 2019, Skogseth et al. 2020). The big year classes of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in 2011-2013 led to high numbers of Atlantic cod in the deeper, open fjords in western Svalbard (Misund et al. 2016). This relatively new, big predator in the fjord system may have large top-down effects on the smaller key fish species, such as polar cod (Boregadus saida), shrimps and others. For the benthos, a similar ‘Atlantification’ of the community composition has been observed, but in threshold fjords with glacial basins the Arctic benthic communities have largely survived, demonstrating the importance of these cold isolated refugees in the otherwise warm Atlantic influenced fjords for securing the overall biodiversity (Renaud et al. 2007, Drewnik et al. 2017).

These glacial fjord bays are also important habitats for sea ice dependent seals, since calving glacier produce ice bergs on which the seals can rest. These chunks of glacier ice accumulate drifting snow and make it possible for ring seals to make protective snow caves for their pups. In eastern Svalbard, sea ice starts to form in autumn and snow piles up over the season, while late sea ice formation in western Svalbard result in often very little snow on top of the sea ice. As such, ring seals have very limited possibilities for hiding their pups from polar bears and other predators such as glaucous gulls (Hanssen et al. 2022).

Polar bears have increased in numbers in West Spitzbergen after hunting was banned in 1973 (Prop et al. 2015). Here, they have adapted to changed hunting grounds. In summer, they predate heavily on bird colonies (Prop et al. 2015) and reindeer, which they can hunt year-round (Stempniewicz et al. 2021).

The increase in ship and boat traffic comes with underwater noise, which can disturb marine mammals (Olsen et al. 2019). Increase in boat traffic (smaller, open vessels) also leads to an increased risk of hitting seabirds and marine mammals while driving. Open boat tourism traffic is first and foremost prevalent in the Isfjorden area.